Article published in La Revue économique 2022/2 (Vol. 73)
In order to meet the objectives set by the Paris Climate Agreement, global greenhouse gas emissions must be drastically reduced. One way to achieve this goal is to set an effective carbon price. Although beneficial for the climate, a rapid increase in this price can have a significant financial impact on corporate firms. Based on the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios, we study the credit risk sensitivity of 795 international companies. We develop a bottom-up approach and analyze how probabilities of default within each sector might evolve in both the medium (2023) and long term (2060). We find that energy, materials and utilities sectors would be the most affected. Moreover, the risk materializes earlier and is more heterogeneous for utilities. From a policy perspective, the prices associated with a scenario limiting global warming to 2°C have a limited impact on global credit risk. Such a scenario therefore seems achievable without generating substantial financial losses. From these results, we propose a new indicator, the carbon price threshold, that takes the economic and capital structure of the firm into account in measuring carbon risk.
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This article received the GRASFI Best Paper Prize for Research on Climate Finance.
Watch the video of the Award reception during which the authors of the article detail the results of their research.
Ce séminaire porte sur la finance solidaire et la finance à impact qui sont considérées comme des modes de financement alternatifs ou complémentaires aux circuits financiers traditionnels. Il interroge en particulier l’évolution de ces deux types de finances au regard de leurs objectifs affichés, étant donné leur essor important depuis une quinzaine d’années.
This one-day workshop brings together researchers working on the design, evaluation, and impact of climate policies aimed at fostering the development and diffusion of low-carbon technologies. The presentations will cover a range of topics including the regulation of urban transport emissions, the integration of carbon dioxide removal into energy markets, the strategic adoption of...