One of the most challenging aspects of (environmental) policy impact evaluation studies is the construction of credible counterfactuals for causal inference. In this paper, we leverage a method that does not require the creation of benchmarks or the identification of external comparable control units to evaluate the effectiveness of the first three phases of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) (2005-2019) in reducing power sector fossil fuel CO2 emissions across 24 EU ETS Member States. Considering the beginning of each trading period (phase) as a policy intervention, the paper adopts a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) modeling framework alongside a set of contemporaneous predictors related to power sector emissions to build counterfactual estimates of emissions for each post-intervention period and analyze the policy implementation effect by comparing actual emissions with counterfactual estimates. The results indicate a statistically significant emissions reduction in the second and third phases. The dominance of the power sector within the ETS since its inception emphasizes the importance of our findings in advancing emissions reduction objectives.
Keywords: The EU ETS, Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions, Climate Variables,Predictive Modeling, Spatio-temporal Analysis, Counterfactual Inference.
Ce séminaire porte sur la finance solidaire et la finance à impact qui sont considérées comme des modes de financement alternatifs ou complémentaires aux circuits financiers traditionnels. Il interroge en particulier l’évolution de ces deux types de finances au regard de leurs objectifs affichés, étant donné leur essor important depuis une quinzaine d’années.
This one-day workshop brings together researchers working on the design, evaluation, and impact of climate policies aimed at fostering the development and diffusion of low-carbon technologies. The presentations will cover a range of topics including the regulation of urban transport emissions, the integration of carbon dioxide removal into energy markets, the strategic adoption of...