Euromemo Conference 10-12 September 2026, Oxford
Abstract
The world has moved from a unipolar one dominated by American power to a bipolar world
in which the United States and China compete for influence, still in a context largely modified
by the globalization of markets and technological changes. Faced with these two poles, the
European Union seems little more than a large open market, but the change of global context
may open new opportunities in helping to safeguard human rights and environment. The “rest
of the world,” ranging from Japan to the Global South, forms a heterogeneous grouping more
or less open to the geopolitical propositions made by the other groups.
This paper first seeks to identify the main features of a baseline scenario in which the United
States–China duopoly could persist in the future without open conflict, while the European
Union would remain marginalized and unable to implement the reforms it requires. Potential
policy shifts at the European level to overcome existing constraints will be examined in the
fields of agriculture, industry, digital technologies, space, and defense. The United Kingdom,
Canada, and other middle powers could potentially join these initiatives in the hope of
restoring a degree of multilateralism, as outlined by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney
at Davos in January 2026.Such an approach would strengthen the prospects for an
environmental policy commensurate with the challenges ahead. It would also require
assessing the reorientation and strengthening of relations between the United Kingdom and
the European Union, which could facilitate such an evolution.
Several alternative scenarios to this baseline S1 are then outlined. Scenario S2 is
characterized by the return of the Democrats to power in the United States, a more peaceful
coexistence with China, and the emergence of coalitions of “middle powers,” particularly in
the field of environmental policy. By contrast, Scenario S3 is marked by the continued
dominance of the Trumpian movement in the United States, a hardening of relations with
China, an intensified process of regionalization, and an environmental policy so reduced that
the growth regime is rather unsustainable in the long term. Scenario S4 represents a response
to the shortcomings of the previous scenarios. Within the framework of a more peaceful
U.S.–China relations, renewed multilateralism would make it possible to adopt measures
more favorable to the environment. Finally, Scenario S5 reflects an entirely different
perspective, in which the outbreak of a major financial crisis in the United States could lead
to two contrasting outcomes. In one case, China would prove more resilient and the United
States would experience relative decline. In the other, the crisis would become global and
could open the way to profound reconfigurations accompanied by a renewed form of
multilateralism.
