Le séminaire de la Chaire Energie & Prospérité est un séminaire interne ayant pour objectif de favoriser les échanges entre membres de la Chaire appartenant à des institutions différentes. Il permet notamment aux doctorants d’échanger sur les recherches en cours. Le séminaire invite également des chercheurs extérieurs à la Chaire pour ouvrir les horizons scientifiques sur les thèmes des trois axes. Néanmoins, la thématique principale du séminaire concerne la modélisation de la transition énergétique et les méthodologies impliquées par diverses approches.

Intervention : Michael Ghil (CERES, ENS Ulm) – Coupled Climate–Economics Modeling and Data Analysis: Endogenous Business Cycles and Fluctuation–Dissipation Theory

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Abstract : This talk will address the mathematics of non-equilibrium macroeconomics [5] and of its interaction with climate variability and climate change [1,2]. First, I will quickly summarize parts that of this group’s research program that have already been presented by two collaborators: biological and economic network resilience (C. Colon) and highly idealized climate–economy–biosphere (CoCEB) modeling (K. Ogutu). Next, I will review earlier work on endogenous business cycles (EnBCs) [5] and on how they affect the impact of natural catastrophes on the economy. Based on these previous findings, I will formulate an economic version of fluctuation–dissipation theory and show that it is supported by available data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [4]. Finally, work in progress on the synchronization of business cycles across the world will be presented [5].

References
[1] Chavez, M., M. Ghil and J. Urrutia Fucugauchi, Eds., 2015: Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics, Geophysical Monograph 214, American Geophysical Union & Wiley, 438 pp.
[2] Ghil, M., 2017: The wind-driven ocean circulation: Applying dynamical systems theory to a climate problem, Discr. Cont. Dyn. Syst. – A, 37(1), 189–228, doi:10.3934/dcds.2017008.
[3] Groth, A., and M. Ghil, 2017: Synchronization of world economic activity, Working Paper, E&P Chair, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/synchronization-of-world-economic-activity/.
[4] Groth, A., P. Dumas, M. Ghil and S. Hallegatte, 2015: Impacts of natural disasters on a dynamic economy, Ch. 19 in Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics, M. Chavez, M. Ghil and J. Urrutia-Fucugauchi (Eds.), Geophysical Monograph 214, Am. Geophys. Union & Wiley, pp. 343–359.
[5] Hallegatte, S., M. Ghil, P. Dumas, and J.-C. Hourcade, 2008: Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics, J. Economic Behavior & Organization, 67, 57–77, doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2007.05.001 .

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