Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 2: Combining deforestation control with carbon capture and storage technologies

This study uses the global climate–economy–biosphere (CoCEB) model formulated in Part 1 to investigate economic aspects of deforestation control and carbon sequestration in forests, as well as the efficiency of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies as policy measures for climate change mitigation. We assume — as in Part 1 — that replacement of one technology with another occurs in terms of a logistic law, so that the same law also governs the dynamics of reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emission using CCS technologies. In order to take into account the effect of deforestation control, a slightly more complex description of the carbon cycle than in Part 1 is needed. Consequently, we add a biomass equation into the CoCEB model and analyze the ensuing feedbacks and their effects on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The paper indicates that an increased investment in CCS will not suffice to reduce CO2 emissions, and that a reduction of deforestation would be as effective as investment in low- and zero-carbon or CCS technologies for reducing climate damage. This study also demonstrates that a combined mitigation regime — investment in low-carbon and CCS technologies, as well as deforestation control— enables the most ambitious climate policy scenario considered here to limit warming throughout the 21st century to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels without a temporal overshoot, as well as reduces impacts to the global per capita GDP by 21.8 % by 2100 relative to the “business-as-usual” pathway which reaches 4.9 °C.

The Chair Energy and prosperity has contributed to Dr Keroboto Ogutu’s work in 2016-2017.

Michael Ghil was a research associate to the Chair Energy and Prosperity until 2019.