Groundwater plays a critical role in supporting economic activities in Africa, particularly in regions affected by climate change-induced water scarcity. This study examines the economic implications of groundwater in relation to conflict dynamics in these regions. We employ a comprehensive dataset covering the period from 1997 to 2021, which includes information on conflict events and groundwater availability. By utilizing cross-sectional and temporal analyses, we investigate the relationships between groundwater depth, climate change, and conflict occurrences. Our findings indicate that areas with a higher share of shallow water – i.e., more accessible groundwater – are more prone to violence, with a heightened effect observed in the 2010s. Furthermore, shallow water has a larger impact on low-intensity conflict events and those related to water and sexual violence. We also highlight the role of local actors and within-cell inequality in water access as significant drivers of conflict. The findings underscore the need for developing equitable water management strategies to mitigate conflict and promote sustainable
development in Africa.
Keywords: Groundwater; climate change; water scarcity; conflict, Africa
