We analyze the impact of agricultural productivity growth on tropical deforestation. Our dynamic model of forest-to-farmland, addressing the Jevons’ paradox and Borlaug hypothesis, predicts that rising agricultural productivity, reflected by declining fertilizer price growth, has an ambiguous effect on deforestation. Using tropical forest loss data (2000-2022) and fertilizer price variations, we find a negative correlation between fertilizer price growth and deforestation, particularly in regions with high market potential. Our results highlight that protected areas do not mitigate the adverse effects of fertilizer price growth on deforestation.